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A look at the Santa Claus rally history and whether it can happen into year-end this time


It turns out that the Santa Claus rally on Wall Street extends beyond the official seven-session stretch from December into January for the S & P 500 , according to Bank of America. Stephen Suttmeier, the firm’s technical research strategist, wrote in a Monday note that in the final 10 sessions of December, dating back to 1928, the S & P 500 has risen 72% of the time, garnering an average return of 1.17%. The official seven-session Santa Claus rally encompasses the final five trading sessions of December and the first two days of January. Historically during that period, the S & P 500 has gained 79% of the time with an average return of 1.66%, Bank of America found. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 is less than 1% away from reaching a fresh all-time high close. This year, the S & P 500 rallied 3.3% over the first 10 sessions of December, which ran through the 14 th of the month, Suttmeier found. When the first 10 sessions are up, the final 10 days of the month are positive, but garner more modest returns of 0.88% on average, he said. Suttmeier is maintaining a bullish outlook on the overall market, which is underpinned by the percentage of stocks that have reached new 52-week highs this month and indicates “upside across the US equity indices.” The development “confirms the breakout above the low 4600s on the SPX and the potential for a future breakout above 2000-2030 on the [Russell 2000],” he said. The three major averages have recently notched seven straight positive weeks. Suttmeier highlighted the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s rally to a new all-time high last week as a sign that “the secular bull market continues.” — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

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