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American Airlines stock surges 10% as strong demand drives 2024 profit forecast

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AAL

American Airlines

Shares of the company rose more than 10% on Thursday.

Here’s how American performed in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared with Wall Street estimates compiled by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

Earnings per share: 29 cents adjusted vs. 10 cents expected.Revenue: $13.06 billion vs. $13.02 billion expected.

For the last three months of 2023, American Airlines reported net income of $19 million, down nearly 98% from $803 million the year prior. Earnings per share decreased to 3 cents from $1.14 in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Adjusting for one-time items, including the impact of a new labor agreement with the airline’s pilots, American earned 29 cents per share.

In its third-quarter earnings report, the airline had estimated it would break even for the December period.

American Airlines’ stock price

“We’re really pleased with the results, we closed out the year strong,” CEO Robert Isom told CNBC’s Phil LeBeau on Thursday. “At American, we’re focused on reliability, profitability and really strengthening our balance sheet. We’ve done all of those … I think that we’re going to have a really busy first and second quarter, and I think the time to buy is right now for travel. It’s going to be a busy year.”

Looking ahead, American said it expects a net loss per share of between 15 cents and 35 cents, adjusted, for the first quarter of 2024. Costs, excluding fuel, are projected to rise between 2% and 4% for the period, with flying capacity up between 6.5% and 8.5%.

Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner, from American Airlines company, taking off from Barcelona airport, in Barcelona on 24th February 2023. 
JanValls | Nurphoto | Getty Images

For full-year 2024, American expects adjusted earnings per share of $2.25 to $3.25 with flying capacity up mid-single digits over 2023.

In a letter to American team members, Isom said the strength of the business meant all U.S. and Canada-based employees will receive a profit-sharing payment in March.

The earnings report comes on a busy day for the airline industry, with SouthwestAlaskaUnited Airlineson Monday posted higher-than-expected earnings and revenue and a sunny forecast for 2024.

Carriers have been navigating tricky winter weather in the early weeks of January, but American said it achieved its best-ever on-time departures over the December holidays.

Industry eyes have been on the Boeing

American doesn’t have any of those planes in its fleet, but it does have the more common 737 Max 8, with 20 more planned for this year, according to Isom. However, late Wednesday, the FAA said it would halt Boeing’s ability to increase 737 Max production, which could hit future deliveries of aircraft.

“Boeing needs to get their act together. The issues that they’ve been dealing with over the recent period of time, but also going back a number of years now, is unacceptable,” CEO Isom said on an earnings call Thursday.

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